Total fertility rate (TFR) is a widely used measure for summarizing fertility in a population. This lesson explains what TFR represents and how demographers estimate it from age-specific fertility rates.
The total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if she experienced the current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) throughout her reproductive years and lived through the end of that period. It is a period measure: it combines rates observed in a particular year rather than following a real group of women across their entire lives.
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What is total fertility rate?
TFR is the average number of children per woman implied if the age-specific fertility rates observed in a period continued throughout her reproductive life.
What is an ASFR?
An age-specific fertility rate measures births relative to the number of women in a particular age group.
How is TFR commonly estimated from five-year age groups?
Add the age-specific fertility rates for bands from about ages 15–19 through 45–49, then multiply the sum by five.
Why can a single-year-age calculation be more detailed?
It uses fertility rates for each individual age from 15 to 49 rather than treating five-year age bands as groups.
Does TFR describe the completed family size of actual women?
Not necessarily. TFR is a period measure that applies current rates hypothetically; it does not follow a real cohort through its reproductive lives.
Quiz questions
What does the total cohort fertility rate (TCFR) describe?Answer: The average number of children born to women in a birth cohort over their reproductive lives.
Under the stated assumptions, what does replacement fertility represent?Answer: The fertility level at which each generation replaces itself, with constant mortality and zero net migration.
What is the conventional definition of lowest-low fertility?Answer: A total fertility rate at or below 1.3 children per woman.
How can delayed childbearing affect period TFR?Answer: It can temporarily lower period TFR even when completed fertility does not change.
What do reproductive rights affirm about decisions on childbearing?Answer: People should be able to decide freely whether, when, and how many children to have.